It's another carnival, but the conference has deteriorated.
From April 6 to April 9, the "2025 Hong Kong Web3 Carnival" co-organized by Wanxiang Blockchain Lab and HashKey Group was held at the Hong Kong Convention and Exhibition Center. This is the third carnival since the announcement of the 2022 declaration. According to the conference press release, this four-day industry event brought together nearly 400 top experts, scholars and industry leaders from the fields of technology, finance, security, entertainment, etc. from around the world. The Hong Kong government stood on the platform and the specifications were quite high. The exhibition area also increased by 50% compared with last year. However, from the on-site point of view, except for a slight increase on the third day, the overall conference seemed to be unpopular.
According to many participants, the overall flow of people was almost halved compared to last year and the year before, and there were less than 100 booths, which was obviously a decrease compared to more than 150 last year. Compared with the 300 booths of Singapore Token2049 last year, it was even dwarfed. It was even suspected that elderly local Hong Kong people were invited to enter to increase the flow of people, and it was therefore jokingly called "the coldest conference". As for why it was cold? There are many reasons. First, the conference was during the tariff war, the market performance was poor, the nature of the bear market was prominent, and the enthusiasm for participating in the conference decreased; second, the consensus conference held in February more or less took the lead. It can be seen on X that many KOLs who had been to the consensus conference did not go to Hong Kong again. The lively side events as always further dispersed the flow of people in the main venue; third, it is a common problem in the industry. There is no hot spot, no innovation, and participants pay more attention to price rather than technology. For ordinary users, attending the conference has become a purely lively social venue.
The booth is a symbol of strength, and the popularity of the booth is a concentrated reflection of attention. In terms of the booths at this year's conference, OKX is undoubtedly the hottest and largest booth. The exchange is still the main sponsor of the conference, and the scene is also very popular, and it is the core contributor to the flow of people. The second is GMGN, the light of Chinese people in the MEME category. In terms of hot topics, Payfi is still the favorite of everyone. Traditional funds have made a lot of achievements in this regard. Not only did HSBC, ZAbank and other institutions talk about Web3 payment in the roundtable discussion, but the Shanghai Data Exchange and Bosera Fund also had booths on site. The former mainly focused on RWA, and the latter was closely related to the current digital currency funds, or was inspired by the "Huaxia Hong Kong Dollar Digital Currency Fund" launched by Huaxia Fund (Hong Kong).
Interestingly, except for Payfi and MEME, the previously popular concepts seem to have returned to calm in the main venue. No one is interested in the DePin track, leaving only a mechanical dog that fits the concept of AI flipping in the venue. Solana and Sui, which were very popular at the Consensus Conference, were not prominently exposed in the main venue. I don’t know if they were affected by the low price of the currency. Of course, both have independent self-organized activities, and perhaps they are no longer in the main venue. After experiencing a round of founder turmoil, TON no longer regards itself as "the eve of the outbreak". It returned to the exhibition area from last year's independent sub-forum. Although it has become a street of its own, its popularity is no longer hot. This is consistent with the actual performance. It was previously rumored that multiple chain game project parties defected to TON, and Web3's Web2 breaking the circle seems to be more difficult than imagined. The BTC ecosystem is even more ignored, BTCFi does nothing, and the Bitcoin ecosystem seems to have truly become a "false proposition" in the market.
From the perspective of participants, KOLs have become the main participants of the conference. Some netizens jokingly called the "Hong Kong Conference a KOL talent market." In contrast, VCs have retreated to the front line. Considering the absence of VC institutions at the Hong Kong Consensus Conference and the high profile of VCs in the last round of bull market, the rapid adjustment of the industry ecosystem chain also makes people feel that it is a thing of the past.
The main venue was not popular, but the surrounding activities were in high demand. In more than 100 side events, in addition to the actual technical forums and hackathons, various cruises, nightclubs, and parties made people linger. Binance, OKX, and Bitget all did their best to promote the gathering of people. After the clinking of glasses, there were WeChat friends. I don’t know how many people went into the night with resource blending, dreams of getting rich, and gossip. As usual, Chinese people are the core group of the Hong Kong conference, and this year the overseas group has a trend of further reduction.
Throughout the entire conference, the most talked-about topic was the gathering of Chinese bigwigs.
At the BUIDL 2025 event, CZ, Justin Sun, Li Lin and other ancient Chinese OGs gathered together, allowing the market to witness the rare "laughing away grudges". You know, the above-mentioned random pairings around Justin Sun all have their own contradictions. Two months ago, Justin Sun accused Li Lin of concealing due diligence materials on social media, and the two fought a public opinion war around the "30 million US dollars financial hole in Huobi". Two months later, the photos of the two hugging and drinking "cup of wine" were circulated wildly, and love and hate became the adjectives of their relationship. CZ and Justin Sun, as the founders of Binance and Tron, respectively, also present a subtle competitive relationship. Just a few days ago, Justin Sun published a post accusing First Digital Trust (FDT) of being insolvent and unable to redeem customer funds. Although it has nothing to do with Binance, it has also brought CZ and He Yi to the forefront again because of the rumor of protecting large households and abandoning retail households. No matter what, the three of them chatting and laughing and hugging each other warmly at the table still made people marvel. In addition to the above-mentioned OG, Shen Bo, Cai Wensheng, Bao Erye and others also appeared on the scene. The reason why the ancient bosses made a collective comeback also left endless reverie in the market.
Unlike the above-mentioned popular Chinese tycoons, Vitalik, who represents the Western camp, presents a completely opposite state. In the context of Ethereum falling below $1,500 and the sluggish price of the currency, the founder Vitalik undoubtedly received only criticism and accusations. The magical scene also came into being. Vitalik on the stage confidently gave a speech to build Ethereum into the world computer, and the crowd below the stage collectively complained about when the price of the currency would rise. The conflict between the technical faction and the price faction was looming, and it would be triggered at any time if you were not careful. In private occasions, the discussion has not decreased. It is quite interesting that many industry insiders mentioned on X that CZ and Vitalik appeared at the same time, and CZ was more popular than Vitalik. The influx of people followed the ups and downs of liquidity, which also indirectly reflected the migration of beliefs. Perhaps compared with Vitalik, CZ, who is more "Internet celebrity" at present, does have a higher influence on the crowd. After all, in the price prediction on the spot, 800 has become a common number for ETH, and BNB at least has the potential to shout orders.
Overall, from the high aspirations in 2023 to the huge crowds in 2024, and then to the current low popularity, Hong Kong has witnessed the whole process of BTC falling from $17,000 to $100,000 and then back to $82,000, from the bear market to the bull market and then to the crossover of bull and bear markets. The conference also perfectly reflects the current situation of the industry. The lack of hot spots and innovations, and the lack of real applications seem to have been deliberately ignored. The bear market has taken shape, exchanges are anxious to attract new members, project parties are in mourning, retail investors are holding on to altcoins, and VC bullets are also coming to an end. But the bear market is not without advantages, with less noise and low cost. It is the key period for polishing products, which is conducive to the emergence of good projects. On the other hand, the circulation of new assets and the flow of money are the key. The traditional and the emerging are blending, and the continuous improvement of supervision is both an opportunity and a challenge. But if we go back to the conference itself, gossip is flying all over the place, and social networking is still the current situation. The mystery of Sun Ge’s girlfriend and the crazy spread of egg literature, the bustling flow of people have different thoughts, and mismatch seems to be reflected in the development of the industry.
The topic turned to Hong Kong. Although the development of Web3 in Hong Kong was not satisfactory due to various reasons, the ecosystem has taken shape. From a policy perspective, whether it is the RWA pilot or the regulation of stablecoins, Hong Kong is firmly at the forefront of the world in terms of openness to Web3. At the conference, Chan Mo-po said that the Financial Services and the Treasury Bureau of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Government and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority are also formulating a regulatory system for stablecoin issuers in Hong Kong. The second policy statement on the development of virtual assets will also be announced this year. So far, the government has allocated HK$50 million to support Cyberport in promoting the construction of the Web3 ecosystem and attracting many Web3 companies to settle in Hong Kong.
According to Chan Ho-lim, deputy director of the Hong Kong Financial and Treasury Bureau, as of September last year, Hong Kong had more than 1,100 fintech companies, with an annual growth rate of more than 15%, covering diverse fields such as digital banking, virtual insurance, and virtual asset education platforms. Among them, there are 8 licensed digital banks, 4 licensed virtual insurance companies and 10 licensed virtual asset education platforms.
Policies followed suit. On April 7, the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission officially issued a circular, which explicitly allowed virtual asset spot ETFs to participate in on-chain pledge activities under the prudent regulatory framework. At the same time, it also relaxed relevant restrictions on virtual asset trading platforms, allowing licensed trading platforms to provide pledge services to customers.
Although Hong Kong’s role as a window has limited effect at present, in the long run, if we want to break out of the traditional institutional circle, Hong Kong, which combines compliance and openness, is still the most suitable soil for development. From this point of view, spectators should perhaps be more patient with Hong Kong.
Here, Gyro Finance also attaches short essays from some participants on X, so that everyone can get a glimpse of the views of industry insiders in the current cycle. Due to space constraints, some of the essays have been edited, so please go to X to view the original text.
AB Kuai.Dong@_FORAB
1. This should be the coldest Hong Kong conference I have ever attended. Friends who work in exhibitions generally complain that it is difficult to attract investment this year, while friends in the media complain that there are fewer and fewer orders from project parties.
2. Many colleagues who left big exchanges have more or less wanted to go back to work at exchanges this year. Although the salary is fixed and the job is relatively routine, the advantage is that someone pays the salary and it is prestigious to talk about it on a big platform. This once again confirms the saying that in a bull market, you want to make trouble, and in a bear market, you want to work.
3. Project parties that completed coin issuance a few years ago are thinking about doing something during this bear market so that they can issue coins again in the next bull market. However, those who have issued coins recently are basically very worried, as if everything they do is wrong.
4. This year, VC peers generally showed a polarized state. For example, the valuations of the projects they invested in before were too high, and this wave of market clearance was quite severe. However, many new projects they encountered later had very cheap valuations.
5. At an event where CZ and Vitalik appeared at the same time, I didn’t expect that CZ was more popular than Vitalik. When everyone rushed to take photos with CZ, CZ complained that they should also go find Vitalik.
6. Last year, when everyone was still arguing about whether there was a problem with Ethereum, this year there seems to be a complete consensus. Whether it was when Vitalik appeared in person or in private, there were questions and discussions everywhere.
7. I asked several market makers and institutions, and most of them saw ETH falling below 800 this time, mainly betting on the panic exit of those who bet on revolving loans and ICOs. However, everyone also saw it this way in June 2022, and it finally touched 880.
8. This year, there are obviously fewer white foreigners from Europe and America attending the conference. Even in the technical field, the proportion of foreigners is smaller. Two years ago, everyone was very fond of the Hong Kong story and were willing to come from far away. This year, there seems to be no such enthusiasm as at that time.
9. This time I met many guys who were doing PUBG. To some extent, some of them did change their family's economic situation because of PUBG. In this coin issuance season from the end of last year to the beginning of this year, although the witch buried some studios, it also made a group of people rich.
10. Although it is still difficult to evaluate the progress of compliance in Hong Kong, Hong Kong has become an interesting crypto exchange center with undercurrents. Many project owners who cannot go back generally come from Singapore, while the cryptocurrency traders generally come from the mainland, which has caused many interesting frictions and collisions between them.
11. Some top Chinese bloggers have industry layouts that include not only the cryptocurrency circle, but also trendy brands, medical beauty, Hong Kong-listed companies, etc., and have gradually formed a large-scale industrial network, which is becoming more and more like brokerage investment companies in Europe and the United States.
DeFi Teddy@DeFiTeddy2020
VC coins that only tell stories will not be able to support high valuations; Meme coins exist for a long time, but the dividends are disappearing; projects return to fundamentals and PMF (product market fit); RWA is slowly rising; AI X Crypto is looking for PMF, and may explode one day; future projects will have two exit methods: IPO and TGE.
VC: I can’t invest anymore, I make fewer investments, I mainly focus on exits and secondary, and I barely look at AI;
Project owner: The original path is no longer feasible, so we are madly pivoting. The word we care most about is Runway.
Investment research KOL: The market doesn’t want to see the content, and I don’t know what else I can do.
ZTZZ ฿@ZTZZBTC
KOL: The quality of this batch of KOLs is far inferior to that of 2017-2018. Now think about it, the KOLs of 1718 are among the top ones in the Internet in terms of their output, motivation to make things happen, and even their long-term vision.
Project owner: As expected, true gold comes out of fire. Interesting projects and teams have begun to emerge in the bear market. But it is still unclear where the next round of hot spots will be. In addition, many VCs have lost their pants, so now everyone is in a state of cautious investment. If you are a new startup project owner, don't give up thinking, and don't stop working hard. Most of the people who entered the circle to do projects in this round are people with excellent academic qualifications, and their commonalities are obvious. There are indeed fewer grassroots heroes in the currency circle. Some projects are still alive, but they are dead. Too many project owners are eagerly seeking exit paths.
The on-chain exchange market does have the opportunity to overtake others. It is unlikely to be a BOT robot. We still don’t know what the final form of this product will be, but the moment it appears, it will explode like a supernova, bringing shock and challenge to the hegemony of CEX exchanges.
cryptoHowe.hl | 0xU@0xcryptoHowe
The quality and atmosphere of the conference were less than one-fifth of last year. I remember that there were many new project parties at last year's venue, and even the Meme project party bought a booth. This year, I took a look and basically saw some large infrastructure and technology service providers. It was obvious that everyone had little money. There were many new people this time, but not many old people. At the same time, there were a lot of KOLs this time. There were fewer project parties and VCs.
The dog-beating tool track is still very hot. Recently, we talked about several new dog-beating tools, but the overall functions and UI are actually similar. Even some large institutions have started to make such tools themselves with the mentality of rather betting wrong than letting go. This indirectly shows that there are still many people who believe that Meme will continue to explode in the future. But now the timing of making tool products is not good, and it is difficult to make differentiation. Basically, they rely on occupying ecological niches in the early stage, various marketing promotions in the middle and late stages, and the team’s own network resources. The most cost-effective Meme track is still casino > tool facilities > plate.
RWA and AI are the two most discussed topics. I actually didn’t expect RWA. I thought everyone would talk about some Alpha like Meme AI. In general, the RWA track is basically difficult to disprove, but its essence has little to do with Crypto. It can be simply understood as a new direction that traditional old money is looking for that can meet compliance requirements and raise money faster and more easily. The business is mainly toB toG, and retail investors basically have no way to participate.
After asking everyone about their expectations for the market, they basically all look to after June. But I personally think June is indeed a bit too early. The second half of the year may be more certain, so please remain patient.
