Author: Nan Zhi, Odaily Planet Daily
In the early hours of this morning, BTC rose to 73650 USDT in a short period of time and then fell back, only about 130 USDT away from the previous high of 73787.1 USDT in March this year. On the other hand, a series of important macro events such as the US non-farm data and the November interest rate cut are about to be announced, and the volatility of crypto assets is expected to increase further. Bitcoin is in sight of setting a new high, and only the finishing touch is left. As for how institutions view the future market, Odaily Planet Daily will sort out the views and arguments in this article.
10x Research: Market narrative shifts, Bitcoin aims for $100,000
10x Research noted in its market analysis that as ETF demand goes parabolic, Bitcoin will follow suit, predicting that Bitcoin could reach $101,694 by the end of January 2025. The strong bullish window will extend into the first quarter of 2025.
The narrative moves away from positioning DeFi as the future and an external alternative to the traditional financial system, and towards “Bitcoin, the digital gold.” This framework positions Bitcoin as a permanent, long-term asset in institutional portfolios.
Bitfinex: Bitcoin will reach a new high next month
Analysts at cryptocurrency exchange Bitfinex said the possibility of Trump winning the presidential election, combined with historically bullish market conditions, could be a "perfect storm" for price action that could push Bitcoin to a new all-time high next month.
“The confluence of election uncertainty, the ‘Trump trade’ narrative, and favorable Q4 seasonality has created a perfect storm for Bitcoin, and no matter where prices go in the run-up to the election in two weeks, it promises to be an exciting period ahead.”
While bitcoin has seen huge swings due to geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East and other macroeconomic issues in the United States, expectations of a possible Trump victory in the Nov. 5 election have caused its price to rebound sharply, analysts said.
Options data: $80,000 mark becomes a key price, and short calls dominate
Bitcoin traders are bracing for heightened volatility as the Nov. 5 U.S. election approaches, with price swings expected to be as high as 20%, according to DeFi derivatives platform Derive.
“The latest trading analysis reveals some compelling insights into market dynamics as we approach a major financial event,” Derive founder Nick Forster said on Monday.
The data showed bets were concentrated around the $80,000 bitcoin strike price, with strong selling of short-term call options as traders used options premiums to prepare for possible price moves.
“The dominance of short call options suggests traders are strategically collecting premium, while the focus on the $80,000 target highlights a potential turning point for Bitcoin,” Forster said.
He explained that with more than 47% of call options in the past 24 hours, traders are looking to take advantage of the "premium" from election-related volatility. The volatility patterns across different expiration dates suggest that traders are preparing for volatility heading into next week, but are still unsure in which direction prices will go.
VanEck: Bitcoin trend is positively correlated with Trump's victory rate and negatively correlated with the US dollar in the long term
Matthew Siegel, head of digital asset research at VanEck, said Bitcoin’s recent gains appear to be related to political changes and global economic concerns. Siegel cited factors such as the upcoming U.S. election, changes in money supply, and international developments in Bitcoin mining as influencing recent price trends.
Regarding the impact of the upcoming U.S. presidential election on Bitcoin price movements, he explained that historically, Bitcoin tends to respond to changes in political sentiment, especially when candidates seen as more supportive of digital assets show an advantage in polls.
The recent price action is consistent with the rising odds of betting on candidate Trump, who supports the cryptocurrency. Siegel said: "We think this is a very favorable setup for Bitcoin going into the election. We saw the exact same pattern in 2020, when Bitcoin lagged and volatility was low. Once the winner is announced, we experience a high volatility rally as new buyers enter this market."
He also stressed the importance of Bitcoin's long-term negative correlation with the U.S. dollar. He added that periods of dollar weakness tend to coincide with rising Bitcoin prices as investors seek alternative means of storing value. Another key factor he mentioned is the correlation between Bitcoin and the growth of the money supply, especially M2, which tracks the supply of cash and ready funds. Siegel said that the Fed's recent policy adjustments have caused the money supply to accelerate again, thus rekindling interest in Bitcoin.
DWF Lianchuang: The market is unstable but the direction is bullish
DWF Labs co-founder Andrei Grachev wrote on X: "October (Uptober) is the first month of the bullish cycle from the fourth quarter of 2024 to the first quarter of 2025. The market is still very volatile, but the direction is positive."
“In my opinion, the current trends include Meme, the chain that correctly launches the Meme coin platform, income assets, artificial intelligence, and RWA.”
The big one is coming. In history, 7 out of 9 similar situations have seen an increase.
Technical analyst Tony Severino said in a recent article that Bitcoin is about to see major price action as its Bollinger Bands present one of the tightest formations in history. When the Bollinger Bands are at their tightest level, it is often referred to as a "Bollinger Band Squeeze," indicating low volatility that could set the stage for a strong price breakout.
Severino noted that Bitcoin’s Bollinger Bands, an indicator used to assess its price volatility and determine trend direction, were “one of the three tightest instances in history” on a two-week timeframe.
Historically, this contraction has led to large swings in Bitcoin prices. A similar situation occurred in April 2016, when the Bollinger Bands first tightened significantly. Following this, Bitcoin prices began to rise sharply in the following months, marking the beginning of a bullish trend. Another key example occurred in July 2023, when the Bollinger Bands once again reached an extremely tight state. Similar to April 2016, it was followed by a significant price increase.
It is important to note that while a tightening range signals the possibility of large volatility, it does not predict the direction of the volatility. The result can be a large rise or a large fall. For example, a similar pattern observed in 2018 led to a large drop in the price of Bitcoin.
Historical data shows that Bitcoin has risen seven out of nine times after tightening its range.
