Author｜jk, Odaily Planet Daily
November 5th is the presidential election day in the United States, and it will also be a day that will profoundly affect the world situation in the next four years. In this upcoming US election, voters' choices will affect the direction of US policies, China's policy response, and the trend of cryptocurrencies and stock markets.
This post will provide a detailed introduction to the election mechanism, timeline, winning rate, and public opinion on them. Through these analyses, whether you are a passionate spectator of the election or an investor interested in the cryptocurrency market, you will have a deeper understanding of the current political situation and its potential impact on the future economy.
Background knowledge: Why did Trump win the US presidency despite having fewer votes in 2016?
The US presidential election is held every four years. First, each state holds a primary or caucus, where voters vote for the candidate they support. Based on the results of the primary, each major party holds a national convention to formally nominate their candidates. The current leading candidates are Donald Trump of the Republican Party and Kamala Harris of the Democratic Party.
The official presidential election is held on the first Tuesday in November (November 5th, local time in the United States this year). In this election, voters actually vote for electors (similar to popular representatives) instead of directly voting for one of the two candidates. Each state allocates electors based on its population, with a total of 538 electors for the entire country. Most states use a "winner-takes-all" system, which means that the candidate who receives the most votes in a state will receive all the electoral votes in that state.
Here is the first point to note in the US election: In the US presidential election, voters vote for electors, who usually represent a specific party. The electors' political stance and whether they support Trump or Harris are generally clear before the election. Therefore, the results of voters' voting often directly reflect which candidate will receive the support of the majority of electors, or even all the electoral votes in the state, which is what we traditionally call the concept of "red states" and "blue states."
For example, if Elector A representing the Democratic Party in California receives the most popular votes in the state, then all of California's electoral votes (55 in total) will go to Democratic candidate Harris, regardless of the political positions of other electors.
Therefore, by counting the distribution of electoral votes in November, it is usually possible to predict with relative accuracy the candidate who will eventually become president, and we will see the results next week.
In order to be elected president, a candidate needs to receive at least 270 electoral votes. The results of the election are usually formalized in December at the Electoral College meeting, when the electors vote to elect the new president. The second point to note is that while the electors generally vote according to the will of the voters (that is, the political positions they have previously promoted), in some cases, individual electors may choose to "betray" their candidate and vote for other candidates. Although this situation is relatively rare, it does exist, so in theory, the final vote of the Electoral College is not necessarily exactly the same as the vote of the voters.
In the 2016 US presidential election, Hillary Clinton received more popular votes, about 65 million votes, accounting for 48.2% of the total votes, while Donald Trump received about 63 million votes, accounting for 46.1% of the total votes. Although Hillary Clinton led in the popular vote, Trump won more electoral votes and was eventually elected president with 304 votes to 227.
This year's final electoral results will be released around late night November 5th local time in the United States, which is the afternoon of November 6th Beijing time.
Trump vs. Harris: What are the odds?
At present, in most of the polls predicted by authoritative organizations, whether it is media that lean toward the Democratic Party, media that lean toward the Republican Party, or neutral organizations, Harris still has an advantage, but the advantage is only one or two percentage points. According to statistics from the neutral media Project 538, the average of the current major polls shows that as of November 1, Harris's winning rate is 48.0% and Trump's winning rate is 46.8%. The results of other data statistics websites are not much different. For example, the results of the New York Times are Harris's 49% to Trump's 48%; the results of 270towin are Harris's 48.4% to Trump's 47.2%.
Harris poll average leads by 1.3%. Source: Project 538
Previously, statistics from Fox News (a media that leans towards the Republican Party) and CNN (a media that leans towards the Democratic Party) also confirmed this conclusion.
This result is somewhat different from the current result of Polymarket, a representative of the crypto prediction platform; according to the article "The US election is approaching, is Polymarket's data more reliable?" previously published by Odaily Planet Daily, it can be seen that Trump's winning rate has been stable at around 60%, while Harris's is less than 40%. As of the time of this article, the total amount of the prediction market has reached 2.38 billion US dollars. Trump's winning rate has declined slightly, while Harris's winning rate has increased accordingly. It can be seen that the Polymarket market has been approaching the poll results in the past week, although Trump still firmly occupies the main position.
Presidential election predictions on Polymarket. Source: Polymarket
The latest news: Zuckerberg turns against Harris, and his Twitter account is blasted
Many interesting things have happened in the election situation so far. Musk and other business tycoons publicly supported Trump. Previously, Meta CEO Zuckerberg wrote an "apology letter" to the Republican Party, which set off the entire Internet.
According to Sina Finance, on August 26, Zuckerberg wrote a letter to Jim Jordan, the Republican chairman of the House Judiciary Committee, saying that he would remain politically "neutral" in this US election cycle and stop donating to local government elections to avoid being considered politically biased. Previously, he was generally considered to be a die-hard fan of the Democratic Party, and this letter may be his "pledge of allegiance" to the Republican Party.
He also publicly criticized Biden administration officials for "constantly" pressuring Facebook in 2021 to censor posts related to the epidemic. Zuckerberg said he "regretted" the company's succumbing to these demands. Some even believe that it was because he discovered the trend in Facebook, the center of public opinion, that he switched to the Republican Party.
When the letter was made public, the X account of the U.S. House of Representatives Judiciary Committee said: "Mark Zuckerberg admitted three things in this letter - first, the Biden-Harris administration 'pressured' Facebook to censor Americans; second, Facebook censored Americans; and third, Facekbook suppressed news about Hunter Biden's laptop." According to Bloomberg, the authenticity of the letter was confirmed by Meta.
Secondly, on the X platform today, debates are endless, and candidate Harris's tweets are basically filled with posts scolding her. Under her latest post "I will be the president of all Americans", the comments section is almost one-sided: "You will not be the president of any American", "You will never be the president", "You can't even be the vice president of all Americans", people below said.
Harris' Twitter comment section, source: X
Almost all of Harris’ tweets have this style, which is somewhat similar to Trump’s in 2016. Some netizens believe that the only reason to choose Harris is that they “don’t like Trump.”
Meme Trends: Maybe Harris’ Meme has a chance?
At present, the trend of MAGA, the largest meme coin of Trump concept, has always been maintained between 3 and 4 US dollars. Although there are fluctuations, the range is not large, which seems to be waiting for the announcement of the final election results. And this sideways trend has lasted for about two weeks.
MAGA trend, source: Coingecko
On the other hand, Harris's Meme coin concept has recently begun to rise. KAMA has risen by about 20% in the short term, from about $0.006 to about $0.0099 today. Its market value has also increased to $9.966 million. Although it is still a small matter compared to Trump, it may also be a reflection of the increase in this market. After all, Trump's concept is relatively mature, and there are also major NFT concepts that attract hot money. Harris's related concept space is relatively larger.
KAMA trend, source: Coingecko
Here, Odaily Planet Daily reminds readers that Meme fluctuates greatly, and this presidential election will be the largest fluctuation of the concept in the short term. Therefore, there is a high possibility of a "Sell the news" incident, that is, the victory of a candidate may not bring about the expected surge in Meme tokens, but a collective sale of previous whale addresses. Please pay attention to the risks.
However, given the ever-changing international situation, unless there are greater events that disrupt expectations in the future, including but not limited to: electors betraying their parties, resulting in a change in the final election results in December compared to the "settled" results in November, a candidate and his or her party being found to have cheated in the election, rendering the results invalid, or the previous "storming of the Capitol" incident occurring, or even a candidate following in Kennedy's footsteps, the election results will be the final expected release of Meme coin in the short term.
Attached is a timeline of the US election so far
February 2: A judge in Washington, D.C., postpones Trump's election interference trial indefinitely.
March 4: The U.S. Supreme Court unanimously ruled in Trump v. Anderson that Colorado, along with Illinois and Maine, was unconstitutional in its attempt to remove Trump from the ballot under the 14th Amendment.
May 30: Trump is found guilty of all 34 counts at a trial in New York, becoming the first US president to be convicted.
July 1: The U.S. Supreme Court ruled 6-3 in the Trump case, split along ideological lines, ruling that Trump has absolute immunity for official conduct within his core constitutional powers, presumptive immunity for official conduct at least within the outer boundaries of his official responsibilities, and no immunity for unofficial conduct. Trump's sentencing date for his conviction in New York was pushed back from July to September 2024, and trial dates in Trump's other cases may also be pushed back to review the applicability of the Supreme Court's ruling.
Since July 1, more than 20 representatives have called on Biden to withdraw from the race.
July 13: Trump is assassinated and shot in the ear at a campaign rally in Butler, Pennsylvania. A bystander and the shooter are killed, and two others are injured.
July 15: The 2024 Republican National Convention opens in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Trump announces U.S. Senator J.D. Vance as his vice presidential nominee, who is later confirmed as the Republican presidential nominee.
July 17: Biden says he would consider dropping out of the race if he is officially diagnosed with a medical condition. Biden then tests positive for the coronavirus.
July 21: Biden announces he is withdrawing from the race, initiating an "emergency transition process" to allow for the Democratic nomination. Vice President Kamala Harris announces she will run for president.
August 6: Kamala Harris announces Gov. Tim Walz as her vice presidential nominee.
September 15: Trump was shot while playing golf at the Trump International Golf Club in West Palm Beach, Florida. Trump was not injured in the incident and was evacuated by the Secret Service.
Oct. 29: Biden responds to a comedian during a video call from Trump's Madison Square Garden rally by calling Trump's supporters "garbage," prompting a rebuttal from Harris, which many see as potentially damaging to the Democratic Party's efforts to attract undecided voters while also marginalizing the large number of Americans who support Trump.
November 5 (first Tuesday in November): Election Day.
