Author: Crypto Stream

Compiled by: Tim, PANews

There is uncertainty in the market outlook, but some possible scenarios are worth paying attention to.

The impact of catalysts varies depending on the time frame: some are immediate, while others take months to manifest.

The following four scenarios are most likely to happen to Bitcoin:

Scenario 1: No catalyst drive and slow bleeding

Although the announcement of the US Bitcoin strategic reserve is a milestone, the capital flow behind it is actually modest. In the absence of new catalysts, a gradual sell-off may occur as market enthusiasm fades and funds turn to other assets.

  • Time frame: 1-8 weeks
  • Effect: Low to moderate, but long lasting
  • Key signals: Declining ETF inflows, weakening holding interest, and tightening liquidity

Scenario 2: Animal Spirits and Relief Rebound

The strategic reserve of Bitcoin may still trigger a short-term rebound in sentiment and attract traditional finance to pay attention to BTC again. If MicroStrategy announces an additional issuance of shares to buy Bitcoin and the stock market rises at the same time, it may trigger a short but sharp price surge.

  • Time frame: Next 7-14 days
  • Impact: Moderate, but short-lived
  • Key signals: ETF fund flows surge, MSTR stock issuance, stock market rise

PANews Note: Animal Spirits refers to the irrational impulses and group psychology effects of market participants; Relief Rally refers specifically to the market's stress-induced rise after a major risk event has eased, which can be understood as a repetitive rebound.

Scenario 3: Increased adoption

Even if the strategic reserve does not immediately generate positive capital flows, it still sends a strong signal:

  1. Retail investors see progress in Bitcoin adoption
  2. Institutions receive dovish signals on cryptocurrencies and may accelerate their entry
  3. Banks, insurance companies, and others may see this as an early signal to add BTC to their balance sheets.

This scenario is not a short-term catalyst, but it increases the probability of large institutions entering the market.

  • Time frame: 3 months+
  • Impact: Low probability of a single trigger, but disruptive
  • Key signals: Increased exposure of large institutions, entry of pension funds, and increase in holdings by sovereign wealth funds

Scenario 4: Liquidity-driven slow rise

Some believe that the M2 money supply is the real driving force behind Bitcoin prices.

Currently, M2 has bottomed out and rebounded rapidly. Historical data shows that BTC prices usually lag behind liquidity trends by about 20 days.

If this logic holds true, Bitcoin may start to fluctuate upward in the next few weeks. However, skeptics point out that not all liquidity of the broad money supply (M2) will be transmitted to risky assets such as Bitcoin. However, the opposing view is that the original intention of Bitcoin’s creation is to absorb such liquidity, so in my opinion, this correlation has important reference value.

  • Time frame: 20-40 days
  • Impact: Medium-term stable and slow growth
  • Key signals: continued expansion of M2, reduction of Treasury account (TGA), inflow of stablecoin funds

PANews Note: M2 is an indicator of money supply and a basic concept in economics. Its core functions are a monetary policy anchor, an inflation early warning device, and an economic vitality indicator.