Author: Nancy, PANews
Once upon a time, the TON ecosystem rose rapidly in the frenzy of "traffic is value" with the support of Telegram's strong traffic. However, as the traffic dividend gradually faded, the curtain of reality was torn open, and the growth engine of the TON ecosystem began to slow down. The single narrative logic, imbalanced resource allocation, the impact of external events and the fluctuation of market cycles have caused the TON ecosystem to fall into a period of pain.
Right now, TON may be experiencing a turnaround after the traffic ebb. News such as top Western venture capital firms helping to buy $400 million worth of tokens and frequent good news after its exclusive binding with Telegram have brought new growth expectations for TON.
VC buys over $400 million worth of tokens and gets exclusive access to Telegram traffic
On March 20, the Open Network Foundation (TON Foundation) disclosed that several leading US venture capital firms VC held more than $400 million in TON tokens, including Sequoia Capital, Ribbit Capital, Benchmark, Kingsway, Vy Capital, Draper Associates, Libertus Capital, SkyBridge and other well-known venture capital institutions. It is reported that this financing was not completed in the form of traditional equity or cash, but in the form of purchasing TON tokens, which was seen by the outside world as a recognition of TON's growth potential.
Public data shows that TON has completed six rounds of financing before this, mostly in the form of over-the-counter (OTC) transactions. From the previously disclosed financing situation, the amount of public OTC in just two rounds reached 38 million US dollars. Although the investment funds involving 400 million US dollars in tokens were not raised by the TON Foundation itself, the participation of top Western venture capital firms is worth noting. These investment institutions have very deep capital backgrounds, and their past performance also adds more imagination to the TON narrative.
For example, Ribbit Capital, a venture capital firm focusing on fintech and cryptocurrencies, has successfully bet on industry giants such as Revolut, Nubank, Coinbase and Robinhood; Benchmark has invested in well-known companies such as eBay and Instagram with a precise vision; and Sequoia Capital's investment portfolio is also very broad, covering star projects such as Stripe, Nubank, Klarna, Fireblocks and StarkWare.
For TON, this round of financing means far more than the money itself. The collective support of traditional Western capital sends a signal that TON is recognized by the mainstream, especially considering the uncertainty that Telegram has brought to TON's development due to regulatory pressure in the past.
In addition to gaining the endorsement of capital, TON has also received good news at the ecological level. Although TON and Telegram were separated and independent due to regulatory difficulties in the past, the two parties are now deeply bound again. In January this year, Pavel Durov publicly stated that TON will become Telegram's exclusive blockchain partner. As an exclusive partnership, all Telegram applets must be migrated to the TON ecosystem, and TON tokens will also become the exclusive payment asset for all Telegram chat services.
Telegram's strong traffic support will bring more room for development for TON. According to the latest disclosure by Pavel Durov, Telegram now has more than 1 billion monthly active users, making it the world's second largest communication application (excluding China's unique WeChat). User activity is also rising, with an average of each user opening Telegram 21 times a day and using it for 41 minutes a day. At the same time, Telegram's revenue has grown significantly, with profits reaching US$547 million in 2024. Not only that, Telegram is also continuing to polish its products, and the platform is constantly optimizing the product experience. For example, it recently announced the launch of the third major update of the year, strengthening video functions and AI sticker search, and plans to introduce trading and income functions in self-hosted crypto wallets. It will also launch a loyalty program for TON holders to further promote the popularization of the TON ecosystem.
The recent return of Pavel Durov has also injected new confidence and vitality into TON. Durov is regarded as the core promoter of TON, and his personal situation directly affects the confidence of the community and the rhythm of ecological development. In August last year, he was arrested in France for Telegram's alleged failure to adequately regulate illegal content, which once frustrated market confidence and caused TVL and coin prices to plummet at the time. However, the French authorities recently adjusted the conditions for judicial supervision and allowed him to return to Dubai, where he has lived for a long time, and the mood of the TON community has warmed up. Durov has made frequent moves since his return, such as spending 5,000 TON to acquire the "elonmusk" username on Telegram. The AI robot Grok developed by his xAI has now landed on Telegram and is open to Premium subscribers for free.
Strong financial support, endorsement from top venture capital firms, deep integration with the Telegram ecosystem, and the return of Durov have jointly driven the market to be highly optimistic about the TON narrative.
The ecological craze has receded, and multiple problems need to be solved urgently
However, the TON ecosystem is still facing severe challenges at this stage. Over the past year, many key indicators of the TON ecosystem have shown a significant downward trend, and it has gradually entered a cooling period from its former prosperity.
Artemis data shows that over the past year, TON tokens have fallen by more than 54.8% from their peak, and their market value has shrunk significantly from the peak of $25.2 billion. At the same time, the total locked value (TVL) of the TON ecosystem has also experienced a sharp decline, from a peak of more than $770 million to today's $170 million, a drop of 77.9%.
The decline in on-chain activity further highlights the plight of the TON ecosystem. Artemis data shows that the number of daily active addresses of TON has dropped sharply from a peak of 2.5 million to the current 137,000, a drop of more than 94.5%. At the same time, the daily transaction volume has also dropped from a peak of US$2.3 billion to the current US$320 million, a drop of 86.1%. The sharp decline in these data clearly outlines the decline of economic vitality within the TON ecosystem, and both user participation and transaction activity have shrunk significantly.
The current situation of the TON ecosystem is the result of a combination of multiple factors. On the one hand, TON was highly dependent on mini-programs and mini-games in the Telegram ecosystem in its early days, and quickly attracted a large amount of traffic with the huge user base of the social platform. However, this growth model based on short-term popularity is difficult to sustain after the wealth-creating effect weakens and the user's sense of novelty fades, and it has lost its key driving force. In particular, in the early days, many users were attracted through mechanisms such as "Tap To Earn", but ultimately failed to effectively transform into long-term and stable ecological participants, which led to the rapid depletion of traffic dividends.
On the other hand, TON's ecological narrative mainly revolves around Telegram's social attributes and mini-games. Compared with other public chains, its layout in diversified tracks such as DeFi, AI and DePIN is obviously insufficient, and its competitiveness is relatively weak. Judging from the distribution of TVL of TON tracked by DeFiLlama, in the past month, the TVL of the liquidity pledge agreement Tonstakers alone exceeded 100 million US dollars, and there were only 13 projects with TVLs of millions to tens of millions of US dollars. This distribution highlights the high concentration of TON ecological projects and its shortcomings in diversified development. Not only that, TON's technical development threshold is high, and its unique programming language and architectural design are not friendly to developers, resulting in slow progress in project development within the ecosystem, making it difficult to attract more high-quality teams to settle in, further limiting the diversity and innovation capabilities of the ecosystem.
In addition, the imbalance in resource allocation within the TON ecosystem has also exacerbated its predicament. As mentioned earlier, TON's marketing and resource investment are also mostly concentrated on Telegram games, including Catizen, Notcoin and Hamster Kombat, which achieved great success through viral spread on Telegram in the early stage of launch, but similar phenomena have not been successfully replicated in other tracks of TON. At the same time, due to the concentration of a large number of resources on a few leading applications, other small and medium-sized projects have difficulty sharing the attention of users and investors due to lack of market exposure and narrative support. This imbalance not only leads to the overly single development of the TON ecosystem, but also weakens its ability to resist risks. Coupled with changes in the overall market environment and external competitive pressure, TON's predicament has been further exacerbated.
In short, whether TON can start a new growth curve depends not only on the continuous empowerment of external traffic, but also requires substantial breakthroughs in ecological diversification, technological innovation and resource integration.
