Author: Nelson Wang

Compiled by: Scof, ChainCatcher

On January 2, Muneeb Ali, co-founder and CEO of Stacks, Bitcoin's leading second-layer network (L2) project, changed his X (original Twitter) profile from "Founder @Stacks" to "Wartime Founder @Stacks". The change shows that Ali realizes that 2025 is a key year for Stacks to shift from technology upgrades in 2024 to market expansion and user growth. Last year, Stacks completed the long-awaited Nakamoto Upgrade, which significantly increased the speed of the project and achieved 100% finality for all transactions on Bitcoin.

Ali believes that this strategic adjustment by Stacks is particularly important as the crypto market is experiencing a bull run due to Donald Trump’s election as president and developing in a more favorable policy environment.

“Changing the brief is a signal to the community that ‘we realize that this is a different time than before, and we need to move faster and be more aggressive,’” Ali told CoinDesk in an interview. “It’s not that there won’t be product upgrades in 2025, but it’s fair to say that product will no longer be the core focus of work.”

Here, Ali shares what he would do differently if he could re-plan the Nakamoto upgrade; his frank views on the slow progress of the Lightning Network in promoting Bitcoin payments; his expectations for Bitcoin price trends in 2025; and his ultimate goal of getting a billion people on-chain through Stacks. In addition, Ali will give a speech at the Consensus Hong Kong Conference in February.

This interview has been condensed and lightly edited for clarity.

Q: What is the current status of the Satoshi upgrade?

Ali: I still think Bitcoin is in great need of a really good L2. One of the reasons is that Bitcoin's UX doesn't change on L1; you can't do fast and cheap transactions on L1. That's why a lot of people are interested in Lightning. It's been around for a while and has some adoption, but it's not particularly high. Frankly, that's the reality.

So I think there is still a need for a Bitcoin transaction network that can provide extremely fast speeds and a great user experience. Arguably, even Solana's achievements in this regard are far better than the Lightning Network or any other solution. So one of our goals is to build a Bitcoin L2 like Solana that can achieve ultra-fast transfers of any funds and provide a great user experience. I think the Satoshi upgrade is helping us move towards this goal.

Q: If the Satoshi upgrade could be redone, what would be different?

Ali: The release of the Nakamoto upgrade was divided into multiple stages. First, the migration of the core consensus capital was completed in April. Then, we launched the fast block feature, but more complex transactions could not benefit from it. Then, we released another version to enable complex transactions to enjoy the benefits of the upgrade. However, looking back on the whole process, it was more like a "gradual release". Each stage had people having high expectations, but there were successive reactions of "not yet fully implemented". When the function was finally fully launched, I think it did reduce the initial excitement to a certain extent.

Q: Will developer interest shift back to Bitcoin in 2025?

Ali: I think so. Bitcoin is like a unique existence, no matter how the market changes, it will never disappear. Even if you look at the dynamics of the public market, you will find that more and more public companies are building Bitcoin reserves. In terms of adoption, Bitcoin is far ahead of any other project.

Maybe a year ago, there was more enthusiasm for Bitcoin L2, but now it seems to have cooled a little bit. However, I think Bitcoin's foundational status is so important that people will eventually return to it.

Q: What impact has Trump had on the development of Bitcoin?

Ali: Very big. Look at the advisors he has chosen, like David Sachs, who will be the head of crypto and AI (czar). He is a major LP at Multicoin Capital and is very knowledgeable about the latest developments in crypto and Solana, so I think this will have a huge impact. The same is true for the other advisors Trump has chosen. For the past four years, the US government and regulators have been almost against us. Now, I think they will actively support and encourage the development of this field. This 180-degree turn is very important and will help the industry a lot.

Furthermore, if a Bitcoin reserve plan were actually implemented, whether nationwide or limited to certain states (such as Texas or Wyoming), it would send a very strong signal globally.

Q: What is your prediction for the price of Bitcoin by the end of 2025?

Ali: I still believe in the four-year cycle theory, and the current cycle I think will end in the fourth quarter of 2025. Although there are some reasons to think that the cycle may not be as violent as in the past, I personally still hold this belief. I would be surprised if the price of Bitcoin did not reach $150,000 by the end of the year. I do think it is possible that we can see a price of $200,000, which would be the upper limit of my expectations.

Q: When will fast payment with Bitcoin be possible?

Ali: We are working hard to push this forward. I think Lightning deserves recognition - it does have a lot of loyal users. However, the technology itself is complex and not easy to integrate. In addition, the Bitcoin community has basically focused on one project. I think a better approach is to allow multiple experiments to proceed at the same time and see which ones attract more attention. What makes me happy is that there are many different projects starting up for Bitcoin's L2 now, and finally we can see multiple experiments unfolding in parallel. If the integration of the Lightning Network is too difficult, let other projects try to solve this problem.

If you go to bitcoin conferences or listen to some of the top people, like [MicroStrategy founder] Michael Saylor, they usually think of Lightning as the only solution. They rarely mention other L2 projects. I think that's partly because some of the L2s have their own tokens, and the bitcoin community is not very enthusiastic about them. But I think that attitude is at least starting to loosen up now.

Q: What are you excited to discuss at Consensus Hong Kong?

Ali: How to bring Bitcoin to a billion people? This is one thing that excites me and drives our technical decisions. If this is your goal, then almost immediately you will focus on L2, because on the first layer (L1) of Bitcoin, a billion people cannot even have unspent transaction outputs (UTXO) at the same time. I think many Bitcoin enthusiasts may not realize that L1 alone on the Bitcoin chain cannot support a billion people having UTXO at the same time.

This is something that isn’t discussed much in our industry. Many have embraced the idea of introducing users to Bitcoin through Coinbase, Binance, or ETFs. But that’s not what Bitcoin is really about. At its core, Bitcoin is about decentralization, self-custody, and giving people direct control over their own assets. We must never lose sight of that mission.