Original title: VanEck's 10 Crypto Predictions for 2025
Translation | IRIS
Before we get into our 2025 predictions, let’s review how our 2024 predictions fared. We give ourselves an 8.5/15 since we came up with 15 predictions in December 2023. A batting average of 0.566 isn’t perfect, but it’s good enough to keep us engaged. With Bitcoin (BTC) breaking $100,000 and Ethereum (ETH) breaking $4,000, this was a memorable year even if we missed a few predictions.
A Review of Cryptocurrency Predictions for 2024
Bitcoin Spot ETP Debuts - (Score 1 point)
Bitcoin halving went smoothly - (score 1 point)
Bitcoin reaches an all-time high in Q4 2024 - (score 1)
Ethereum remains in second place after Bitcoin - (score 1 point)
Layer 2 protocols (L2s) dominate Ethereum activity (but L2’s TLV is still lower than Ethereum’s) - (score 0.5)
Stablecoin market capitalization reaches all-time high - (score 1 point)
DEX achieves highest share of spot trading volume in history - (1 point)
Solana outperformed Ethereum - (score 1 point)
DePIN Network Adoption Growth - (Score 1 point)
Now, let’s get to the main event: the cryptocurrency predictions for 2025.
Top 10 Cryptocurrency Predictions for 2025
The crypto bull market reached its mid-term peak in the first quarter, and set a new high in the fourth quarter
US embraces Bitcoin through strategic reserves, increasing cryptocurrency adoption
The value of tokenized securities exceeds $50 billion
Stablecoin daily settlement volume reaches $300 billion
AI Agent’s on-chain activity exceeds 1 million agents
Bitcoin L2 Reaches 100,000 BTC in Total Value Locked (TVL)
Ethereum blob space generates $1 billion in fees
DeFi reaches all-time high, DEX trading volume reaches $4 trillion, and total locked value reaches $200 billion
NFT market recovers, trading volume reaches $30 billion
DApp tokens close the performance gap with L1 tokens
1. The crypto bull market hit a mid-term high in the first quarter and set a new high in the fourth quarter
We believe that the crypto bull run in 2025 will continue to develop and reach its first peak in the first quarter. At the apex of this cycle, we expect Bitcoin (BTC) prices to reach approximately $180,000 and Ethereum (ETH) prices to exceed $6,000. Other high-profile projects such as Solana (SOL) and Sui (SUI) could reach prices of more than $500 and $10, respectively.
After this first peak, we predict that Bitcoin will correct by about 30%, while altcoins could face a larger drop of up to 60%, and the market will enter a period of consolidation during the summer. However, the autumn may usher in a recovery, with major tokens regaining momentum and returning to or refreshing their all-time highs before the end of the year.
To determine whether the market is nearing a top, we look at the following key signals:
Sustained high funding rates : When traders borrow funds to bet on rising Bitcoin prices and are willing to pay funding rates of more than 10% for three months or more, it indicates that market speculation is too high.
BTC perpetual contract funding rate exceeding 10% for several months is a bearish signal
Excessive unrealized profits : If the proportion of investors holding Bitcoin with significant paper profits (profit-to-cost ratio of 70% or more) stabilizes, it usually means that the market is in a frenzy.
Overvaluation of market capitalization relative to realized value : When MVRV (ratio of market capitalization to realized value) exceeds 5, it indicates that the price of Bitcoin is far above the average purchase cost, which often indicates an overheated market.
Declining Bitcoin dominance : When Bitcoin’s share of the entire crypto market falls below 40%, it indicates a shift in funds to higher-risk altcoins, a typical late-stage market cycle phenomenon.
Mainstream speculation : When non-crypto friends start sending messages asking about some dubious project, this is usually a reliable sign that the speculative frenzy is approaching its peak.
These indicators have historically been reliable signals of market overheating and will provide important insights into our market outlook as we navigate the expected market cycle through 2025.
2. The United States embraces Bitcoin: establishing strategic reserves and promoting the popularization of crypto assets
The election of Donald Trump has injected significant momentum into the crypto market, with his administration appointing a number of pro-crypto leaders to key positions, including Vice President JD Vance, National Security Advisor Michael Waltz, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, Treasury Secretary Mary Bessent, Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chairman Paul Atkins, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) Chairman Jelena McWilliams, and Health and Human Services Secretary RFK Jr. These appointments not only mark the end of anti-crypto policies, such as systemic banking restrictions on crypto companies and their founders, but also indicate the beginning of a new policy framework that views Bitcoin as a strategic asset.
Crypto ETP: Physical Creation, Pledge Function and New Spot Approval
The new U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) leadership or the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is expected to approve multiple new spot crypto asset trading products (ETPs), including VanEck's Solana product. Ethereum ETP functionality will be expanded to support staking, providing greater utility for holders, and both Bitcoin and Ethereum ETPs will support physical creation and redemption. In addition, the SEC or Congress may repeal SEC Rule SAB 121, which will open the door for banks and brokers to custody spot crypto assets, further promoting the deep integration of digital assets with traditional financial infrastructure.
Sovereign Bitcoin Adoption: Federal, State Governments, and Mining Expansion
It is expected that by 2025, the U.S. federal government or at least one state (such as Pennsylvania, Florida or Texas) will establish a Bitcoin reserve. At the federal level, this move is more likely to be implemented through an executive order with the Treasury Department's Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF), although bipartisan legislation remains a potential variable. At the same time, some state governments may act alone, viewing Bitcoin as a hedge against fiscal uncertainty or as a means to attract crypto investment and innovation.
In terms of Bitcoin mining, the number of countries using government resources to participate in mining is expected to reach double digits (currently 7). This trend is driven by the BRICS adoption boom, especially Russia has expressed its intention to settle international trade in cryptocurrency, further highlighting the importance of Bitcoin in global economic strategy.
Number of countries using government resources to mine Bitcoin
We expect this pro-Bitcoin policy stance to have a ripple effect in the broader U.S. crypto ecosystem. Due to regulatory clarity and incentives, the percentage of global crypto developers located in the U.S. will rise from 19% to 25%, attracting more talent and businesses to return. At the same time, the U.S. Bitcoin mining industry will flourish, with the U.S. share of global mining power growing from 28% in 2024 to 35% by the end of 2025. This growth is driven by cheap energy and possible tax incentives. Together, these trends will solidify the U.S.’ leadership in the global Bitcoin economy.
US listed companies are expected to account for 35% of Bitcoin computing power
Corporate Bitcoin Holdings: Expected to Grow 43%
In terms of enterprise adoption, we expect companies to continue to accumulate Bitcoin from retail holders. Currently, 68 public companies hold Bitcoin on their balance sheets, and this number is expected to increase to 100 by 2025. Notably, we boldly predict that the total amount of Bitcoin held by private and public companies (currently 765,000 BTC) will exceed Satoshi Nakamoto's holdings (1.1 million BTC) next year. This means that corporate Bitcoin holdings will achieve a significant 43% increase in the next year.
Gold vs. Bitcoin Holdings: Companies and Governments Still Have Room to Grow
3. The value of securities tokenization exceeds $50 billion
On-chain securities will grow by 61% by 2024
Crypto rails promise to create a better financial system through increased efficiency, decentralization, and greater transparency. We believe that 2025 will be the breakout year for security tokenization. There are already about $12 billion in security tokens on blockchains, the majority of which ($9.5 billion) are private credit securities issued through Figure’s semi-permissioned blockchain, Provenance.
In the future, we see great potential for issuing security tokens on public chains. We speculate that there will be many incentives for investors to promote equity or debt securities that are issued only on-chain. Next year, we expect entities like the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC) to support the seamless transition of tokenized assets between public blockchains and private closed infrastructures. This dynamic will lead to the formation of anti-money laundering (AML) and know your customer (KYC) standards for on-chain investors. As a bold prediction, we expect Coinbase to take the unprecedented step of tokenizing its shares (COIN) and deploying them on its BASE blockchain.
4. Daily settlement volume of stablecoins will reach $300 billion
Stablecoin monthly trading volume to increase 180% year-on-year in 2024
Stablecoins will leap from a niche role in crypto trading to an essential component of global commerce. By the end of 2025, we expect stablecoin daily settlement volume to reach $300 billion, equivalent to 5% of the current trading volume of the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC), a threefold increase from the daily average trading volume of about $100 billion in November 2024. Its adoption by major technology companies (such as Apple and Google) and payment networks (Visa, Mastercard) will redefine the economic model of payments.
In addition to trading, the remittance market is also expected to see explosive growth. For example, stablecoin transfers between the United States and Mexico could grow fivefold, from $80 million per month to $400 million. The reason? Fast transactions, cost savings, and the trust of millions of users in the transformation of stablecoins from experimental tools to practical tools. Although the adoption of blockchain technology is still under discussion, stablecoins are becoming a "Trojan horse" to promote its development.
5. AI agent on-chain activity will exceed 1 million
AI Agents Reaches $8.7 Million in Total Revenue in 5 Weeks
We believe that one of the most compelling narratives that will lead to mass adoption in 2025 is AI Agents. AI Agents are specialized artificial intelligence bots designed to help users achieve specific goals, such as "maximize revenue" or "increase engagement on X/Twitter". These agents autonomously adjust their strategies to optimize results. AI agents are typically fed large amounts of data and trained to specialize in a certain area. Currently, protocols like Virtuals provide tools for anyone to create AI agents that perform tasks on-chain. With Virtuals, even people with non-technical backgrounds can create their own AI agents by leveraging decentralized AI agent contributors such as fine-tuners, dataset providers, and model developers. This model will give rise to a large number of agents whose creators can generate income by renting out their agents.
Currently, the main focus of agent development is in the DeFi field, but we believe that the application of AI agents will go beyond financial activities. They can serve as social media influencers, computer players in games, and interactive companions or assistants in consumer applications. Some agents have become important X/Twitter influencers, such as Bixby and Terminal of Truths, with 92,000 and 197,000 followers respectively. Therefore, we believe that the huge potential of agents will drive the creation of more than 1 million new agents by 2025.
6. Bitcoin Layer2’s total locked value (TVL) will reach 100,000 BTC
Bitcoin Layer 2 TVL to grow 600% YoY to 30,000 BTC in 2024
We are closely watching the rise of Bitcoin's second-layer (Layer-2, L2) blockchains, which have the potential to revolutionize the Bitcoin ecosystem. By extending the capabilities of the Bitcoin network, these L2 solutions can significantly reduce latency and increase transaction throughput, thereby addressing the limitations of Bitcoin's base layer. In addition, Bitcoin L2 further expands Bitcoin's application potential by introducing smart contract functions, which will promote a powerful decentralized financial (DeFi) ecosystem built around Bitcoin.
Currently, Bitcoin can be transferred from the Bitcoin blockchain to smart contract platforms in the form of bridges or wrappers, but these methods rely on third-party systems and are vulnerable to hacking and security vulnerabilities. The Bitcoin L2 solution aims to address these risks through a framework that integrates directly with the Bitcoin base layer, thereby reducing reliance on centralized intermediaries. Although liquidity limitations and adoption barriers remain, Bitcoin L2 promises to improve security and decentralization, providing Bitcoin holders with greater confidence to actively participate in the use and development of the decentralized ecosystem.
As shown in the figure, Bitcoin Layer2 solutions have experienced explosive growth in 2024, with a total locked value (TVL) exceeding 30,000 BTC, a year-on-year increase of 600%, or approximately US$3 billion. Currently, there are more than 75 Bitcoin Layer-2 projects under development, but only a few are likely to achieve mass adoption in the long run.
This rapid growth reflects the strong demand among BTC holders for asset yield generation and wider use. As chain abstraction technology and Bitcoin Layer2 gradually mature into usable products suitable for end users, Bitcoin will also become an important part of DeFi. For example, the Ika platform on Sui or Near's chain abstraction technology (used by Infinex) demonstrate how innovative multi-chain solutions can enhance Bitcoin's interoperability with other ecosystems.
By supporting secure and efficient on-chain lending and other permissionless DeFi solutions, Bitcoin Layer2 and abstraction technologies transform Bitcoin from a passive store of value to an active participant in the decentralized ecosystem. As adoption scales, these technologies will unlock huge potential for on-chain liquidity, cross-chain innovation, and a more integrated financial future.
7. Ethereum Blockspace Fee Revenue Reaches $1 Billion
Ethereum block data released every day
The Ethereum community is actively discussing whether the value it gets from the second layer network (L2) through block space is sufficient. Block space is a key component in Ethereum's expansion plan. As a dedicated data layer, the L2 network will compress its transaction history and submit it to the Ethereum main network, paying ETH fees per block. Although this architecture supports Ethereum's scalability, the current L2's return value to the main network is limited, with a gross profit margin of about 90%. This phenomenon has raised concerns that Ethereum's economic value may be too much tilted towards the L2 network, resulting in underutilization of base layer resources.
Despite the recent slowdown in blockspace growth, we expect its usage to grow significantly by 2025, driven by three key factors:
Explosive growth of the second layer network (L2) : Ethereum L2 transaction volume is growing rapidly at an annualized rate of more than 300%. In pursuit of a lower cost and higher throughput environment, users are migrating DeFi, games, and social applications to L2. With the widespread popularity of consumer-oriented decentralized applications (dApps) on L2, more transactions will flow back to the Ethereum mainnet for final settlement, which will significantly increase the demand for block space.
Rollup technology optimization : Advances in Rollup technology, such as more efficient data compression and lower block space data submission costs, will encourage L2 to store more transaction data on Ethereum, thereby achieving higher throughput without sacrificing decentralization.
Introduction of high-fee use cases : Enterprise applications, zk-rollup-enabled financial solutions, and tokenization of real-world assets will drive high-value transactions. The priority of security and immutability in these use cases will increase market acceptance of paying block space fees.
By the end of 2025, we expect blockspace fees to exceed $1 billion, a huge leap from the current almost negligible level. This growth will solidify Ethereum's core position as the final settlement layer for decentralized applications, while enhancing its ability to capture value from the rapidly expanding L2 ecosystem. Ethereum's blockspace will drive network expansion and become a key source of revenue, balancing the economic relationship between the mainnet and L2.
8. DeFi hits record high: decentralized exchange trading volume reaches $4 trillion, total locked volume reaches $200 billion
DeFi (decentralized finance) total locked value (TVL)
While decentralized exchange (DEX) volumes have hit all-time highs, both in absolute terms and relative to centralized exchanges (CEX), the total value locked (TVL) in decentralized finance (DeFi) is still 24% below its historical peak. We expect DEX volumes to exceed $4 trillion by 2025, accounting for 20% of CEX spot volumes, driven primarily by the rise of AI-related tokens and new consumer-facing dApps.
In addition, the influx of security tokenization and high-value assets will further promote the development of DeFi, providing it with new liquidity and a wider range of application scenarios. Therefore, we expect that by the end of 2025, DeFi's TVL will rebound to more than $200 billion, reflecting the growing demand for decentralized financial infrastructure in the evolving digital economy.
9. NFT market recovers, with trading volume reaching $30 billion
NFT trading volume declines in 2024; we expect a rebound in 2025
The 2022–2023 bear market hit the NFT industry hard, with trading volumes plummeting 39% since 2023 and 84% from 2022. While fungible token prices recovered in 2024, most NFTs lagged behind, with weak prices and low trading activity until a turning point in November. Despite these challenges, a few outstanding projects have bucked the trend by transcending pure speculative value through strong community ties.
For example, Pudgy Penguins successfully transformed itself into a consumer brand, creating a market for collectible toys, while Miladys gained cultural influence in satirical online culture. Similarly, Bored Ape Yacht Club (BAYC) continues to develop as a dominant cultural force, attracting widespread attention from brands, celebrities, and mainstream media.
As crypto wealth recovers, we expect a new generation of wealthy users to view NFTs not just as speculative investments, but as assets with lasting cultural and historical significance for diversification. Established series like CryptoPunks and BAYC will benefit from this trend due to their strong cultural value and relevance. While BAYC and CryptoPunks are still trading well below their historical peaks (down approximately 90% and 66% in ETH terms, respectively), other projects like Pudgy Penguins and Miladys have surpassed their previous price highs.
Ethereum continues to dominate the NFT space, hosting the majority of significant NFT collections. In 2024, Ethereum accounted for 71% of NFT trading volume, and we expect this to rise to 85% in 2025. This dominance is also reflected in the market capitalization rankings, with Ethereum NFTs occupying all of the top 10 and 16 of the top 20 positions, highlighting Ethereum’s central role in the NFT ecosystem.
While NFT trading volumes may not be able to replicate the frenetic highs of prior cycles, we believe annual trading volumes of $30 billion are feasible as the market gradually shifts toward sustainability and cultural value rather than pure speculative frenzy, equivalent to approximately 55% of the 2021 peak.
10. Decentralized application (DApp) tokens gradually narrow the performance gap with L1 tokens
Layer 1 (L1) blockchain tokens will outperform leading DApp tokens by twice as much in 2024
A notable feature of the 2024 bull run is the outperformance of Layer-1 (L1) blockchain tokens compared to decentralized application (dApp) tokens. For example, the MVSCLE index, which tracks smart contract platforms, has risen 80% year-to-date, while the MVIALE index of application tokens has only risen 35% over the same period.
However, we expect this trend to shift in the second half of 2024. The launch of a series of new dApps will bring innovative and practical products, injecting more value into their tokens. Among the major thematic trends, artificial intelligence (AI) has become a prominent area of dApp innovation. In addition, the decentralized physical infrastructure network (DePIN) project also has great appeal and is expected to attract the interest of investors and users, driving the performance gap between L1 tokens and dApp tokens to gradually narrow.
The shift underscores how the success of utility tokens in an evolving crypto market increasingly depends on their utility and product-market fit.
