After Trump won the election, everyone expected the US government to accelerate its embrace of cryptocurrencies, which kept the Bitcoin market hot. On November 21, the price of Bitcoin hit a record high, approaching the $95,000 mark.
As the world's largest cryptocurrency, Bitcoin has played a central role in this "Trump rally," with its price rising more than 35% since Election Day. Bitcoin prices have doubled this year. Currently, Bitcoin's market value is $1.87 trillion, about 10% of the market value of gold, surpassing traditional giants such as silver and Saudi Aramco to become the world's seventh largest asset.
Clear policy expectations accelerate Bitcoin's rise
As the first cryptocurrency-friendly president in the United States, Trump promised a number of measures to support cryptocurrency during his campaign, such as incorporating Bitcoin into the national reserve, making the United States the cryptocurrency capital of the world, and relaxing regulations. With Trump's victory, coupled with the Republican sweep of both the Senate and the House of Representatives, Trump will have great power to implement his agenda after taking office on January 20 next year. Clearer policy expectations have accelerated the embrace of Bitcoin by traditional people.
Bitcoin spot ETF has become the most convenient channel for US stock investors. Data shows that BTC spot ETF continues to see a large amount of capital inflow, and the overall inflow of the top ten ETFs has continued to increase within 7 days. Currently, Bitcoin spot ETF has held more than 1 million Bitcoins.
In addition to ETFs, many institutions are also constantly buying. MicroStrategy, a "big Bitcoin player", raised about $2 billion and purchased 272,000 new bitcoins between October 31 and November 10. On November 16, it again purchased 51,780 bitcoins at a price of about $4.6 billion. The management plans to raise $42 billion between 2025 and 2027 to further increase its holdings of Bitcoin. Currently, MicroStrategy owns about 1.67% of the world's circulating Bitcoin. In addition, other listed companies such as US stocks, Hong Kong stocks, and Japanese stocks have also disclosed their holdings of Bitcoin in their latest financial reports. More and more listed companies are planning to use Bitcoin as a treasury reserve asset.
Trump's crypto-friendly stance not only affects US policies, but also promotes the layout of crypto assets in countries around the world. Currently, El Salvador continues to purchase 1 BTC per day, and its Bitcoin holdings have reached about 5,900 BTC. The Bhutanese government holds more than 12,000 Bitcoins, accounting for 34% of its GDP. Market news shows that Gulf oil-producing countries such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar may be investing in Bitcoin at the sovereign level.
Is there still room for growth? A detailed look at BTC trends after previous elections
In this cycle, due to Trump's support, the market reaction was particularly enthusiastic, and now its price is approaching 100,000 yuan. Does this mean that the policy benefits after the election are already fully included in the price, and is the room for Bitcoin to rise limited?
From a historical perspective, every US election has had a long-term impact on the price of Bitcoin. During the 2012 election (November 5), the price of Bitcoin soared from around $11 before the election to a cyclical peak of more than $1,100 in November of the following year, an increase of nearly 12,000%. After Trump was elected as the US President in early November 2016, the price of Bitcoin started at around $700 and reached a peak of nearly $18,000 in December of the following year, an increase of about 3,600%. The November 2020 election coincided with the COVID-19 pandemic, and Bitcoin soared 478% in one year to a high of about $69,000.
According to the data, Bitcoin has maintained an upward trend after the first three elections. Although the increase has gradually decreased, it has never fallen back to the price on election day and finally reached its peak the following year. If this trend reappears, the price of Bitcoin should peak in about a year.
It is important to note that the US presidential election coincides with the Bitcoin halving cycle. In the past, Bitcoin was a niche alternative investment market, and the halving had a more direct impact on prices than the election. However, in this cycle, Bitcoin has been integrated into the US financial system and has become part of the policy, so this election has a more direct impact on its price, which undoubtedly provides new impetus for the rise in Bitcoin prices.
All current signs indicate that the US election has become a critical node in the development of cryptocurrency, and Bitcoin may end 2024 with an overwhelmingly positive momentum, and 2025 will be even more optimistic.
