one, Attention Value - Market Key Points
1. Market Conditions
(1) Macro environment:
l Federal Reserve Vice Chairman for Supervision Barr resigns: Victory for big banks and future regulatory challenges
Jaret Seiberg of TD Cowen’s Washington research group noted that the resignation of Michael Barr, the Fed’s vice chairman for supervision, “doesn’t represent the victory that it appears to be for the big banks.”
In a report released on January 6, Seiberg stressed that it would be difficult to make substantial progress on deregulation this year because Democrats still hold a majority on the Federal Reserve Board until early 2026 , when new regulators are confirmed.
Barr has been advocating for the regulation of stablecoins, pointing out that stablecoins "rely on the trust of the central bank" and that the Fed wants to ensure that any issuance of stablecoins is carried out within an appropriate federal regulatory framework to prevent threats to financial stability and the integrity of the payment system. This position is part of the legislative effort to regulate stablecoins, but there are still challenges in how to effectively allocate regulatory powers between state and federal governments.
Barr announced that he would resign as vice chairman of supervision on February 28 , 2025 , but said he would continue to serve as a member of the Federal Reserve Board and would not participate in the formulation of major rules until the new vice chairman was confirmed. He mentioned that the controversy surrounding his position could distract the Federal Reserve's attention.
(2) Web3 Field:
l Arthur Hayes predicts crypto market will peak in mid -March 2025 and face correction
In his latest article, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes analyzed the U.S. dollar liquidity environment in the first quarter of 2025 and its potential impact on the crypto market. He predicted that the crypto market will peak in mid- March and will subsequently experience a significant correction.
According to his analysis, about $ 612 billion of liquidity is expected to be injected in the first quarter, mainly due to the decline in the balance of the Fed's reverse repo facility and the release of funds from the Treasury's general account, which will provide support for Bitcoin and other assets. However, Hayes also pointed out that the Fed's quantitative tightening policy will lead to a reduction in liquidity of about $ 180 billion . In addition, the debt ceiling issue may trigger liquidity changes in the second quarter. The Treasury Department is expected to pay government expenses through the Treasury's general account from May to June, which will force it to raise the debt ceiling, which will have a negative impact on liquidity. At the same time, the peak tax season (such as mid - April ) will further suppress market liquidity. Despite the existence of various macroeconomic factors, the impact of the reverse repo facility and the flow of funds from the Treasury's general account on the market is relatively clear. Therefore, Hayes expects the market to see a short-term high at the end of the first quarter, and may enter a period of adjustment afterwards.
2. Hot Events
(1) Macro environment:
l Up to 20 state-level "strategic bitcoin reserve" bills to be introduced in the United States
According to Dennis Porter , co-founder of Satoshi Action Fund , up to 20 "Strategic Bitcoin Reserve" bills will be proposed at the state level in the United States, and some states may introduce multiple bills at the same time. Legislators are vying to be the first to initiate this historic initiative. Most of these bills will be based on the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve ( SBR ) model proposed by Satoshi Action Fund . Porter also mentioned that the 14th state is ready to introduce relevant legislation, showing the positive attitude of states towards incorporating Bitcoin into fiscal policy.
(2) Web3 Field:
l Nasdaq applies to increase BlackRock's spot Bitcoin ETF holding limit to 250,000 shares
It is reported that Nasdaq has submitted an application to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to increase the holding limit of BlackRock's spot Bitcoin ETF ( IBIT ) from 25,000 to 250,000 . The passage of this application will allow a single investor or institution to hold more shares of the ETF to meet the growing market demand. The director of Bitwise Alpha Strategies said that considering the continued increase in the ETF's trading volume, the holding limit should be increased to at least 400,000 shares to be reasonable. The requests of Nasdaq and BlackRock are considered to be well-founded, but ultimately they still need the approval of the SEC to take effect.
3. Hot Narratives
l Virtuals Protocol and Sovrun join forces to create "ReadyGamer" focusing on the integration of AI and games
According to official news, Virtuals Protocol and Sovrun are joining forces to create a joint venture called "ReadyGamer" , focusing on combining artificial intelligence with games to redefine the gaming experience.
"ReadyGamer" will work on developing AI -based gaming experiences, leveraging technologies powered by the GAME framework, with the goal of enhancing player interactivity and immersion. By integrating advanced AI technologies, the joint venture hopes to create a more personalized and dynamically responsive gaming environment, allowing players to enjoy a richer and more diverse gaming experience.
Influenced by this news, the SOVRN token rose by more than 170% in 24 hours , reflecting the market's positive view on the prospects of the ReadyGamer project and investors' recognition of the potential of combining AI with games.
two, Attention Value - Hot Project
1. Project Introduction
l $mearth | AI | @MiddleearthAI
- Middle Earth AI is a social strategy game on the X platform where players interact through AI agents. There are four AI agents in the game, which compete for the position of the sole winner through social interactions and on-chain operations. Players can influence the decisions of these agents through comments, retweets, etc.
- Players can send tokens to the agent's wallet to get staking rewards, but the more tokens they hold, the less rewards they will get, in order to balance the support. In battle, if the agent fails, 31% to 50% of the tokens may be burned.
- The development team holds 5% of the total tokens, of which 4% will be locked for one week, 1% will be used for project development, and 60 million tokens will be locked for 10 years to ensure the long-term stability of the project.
- Solana hackathon project, dev is @SoddLeboeuf , previous project was @soddle_ .
three, Attention Value - Sector Rotation
1. Hot topics
Source: Dune , Dot Labs
Source: Dune , Dot Labs
2. Inside the plate
Source: Dune , Dot Labs
